Iran-US-Israel Conflict: Why sudden return to inflation under Tinubu? ||Olawale Ogunbusola

It has been quite sometime you read from me; not a writer's block neither in vacation. I continued to monitor the socio-political landscape, especially as many of my researched thought provoking recommendations are informally formally adopted both in Oyo State and Nigeria as a whole. Thus, I credit President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Seyi Makinde led government for processing the democracy. 

Away from that, it has been very critically urgent to critique the sudden return of inflation in Nigeria over the ninth-day impact of Iran-US-Israel conflict is becoming felt on the nation's economy. 

The administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu has faced plenty of challenges as the inherited economy from previous government back then in May 2023 was cancerous. No doubt, his team considered bringing an end to the oil subsidy regime which for several years had drained above half the nation's economic yields. The decisiveness of the administration to cross out the regime was painstakingly timely. The end to the oil subsidy at the beginning tightened the economy and other sectors, why? The country has been adjudged to be an oil dependent nation. That is a fate!

I remember during the funeral ceremony of former Minister of Sports and current Senior Special Assistant on Communications to the President, Chief Sunday Dare's mother in Ogbomosho in 2024, the co-ordinating Minister, Wale Edun said for the first time, that the Bola Ahmed Tinubu led administration was putting in place holistic mechanisms that would crash food inflation from nearly 30 percent to most bearable minimum. Did you know that as I speak, the food inflation stands at 8.8percent, while the annual inflation has reduced yo 15.1percent as at January 2026. percent. 

Is this not laudable as for the two religious seasons consecutively, prices of food and oil prices remained affordable stable. 

As one of the advocates of the Dangote Refinery, since the nation's refineries have either stopped dispensary or failed revitalization; this believed to enable oil surplus, through a privately owned refinery, be produced on the Nigeria soil; and address crumbling economy nationwide. All odds and hurdles were cleared for its operation, despite, without any choice, it will dictate the nation's economy. This we observed since its fuller operation. Dangote Refinery has undoubtedly made subsidy payment suspension sustainable. We commend the chief Executive Officer of Dangote Refinery Groups, Aliko Dangote for this and resilience and commitment of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in renewing the nation's economy. 

However in recent time, precisely, just ninth-day of Iran-US-Israel conflict, the rumour of the War has billowed return of inflation in Nigeria. This spell of artificial inflation must be tackled head on in Nigeria. We cannot continue like this! Obviously, we sympathize with affected families in the ongoing conflict. 

From over 47 years of internal wrangling between Iran and United States of America, there was never a report of inflation in the countries despite damages. 

The Russian-Ukraine War triggered inflation on staple foods in Africa, including wheat, among others. My concern is, does it mean Aramsco Refinery in UAE belong to the Dangote Group or Nigeria? Why sudden scarcity of fuel in Nigeria? As Dangote Refinery announced a hike of #100 on its fuel depot sale, just three days later, the NNPCL did the same. This announcement has further worsened livelihood. Transport fares went up immediately as fuel pump price hit #1,080 in major filling stations, while others gravely operate; all of these in the Holy Month, for God's sake. 

This is a period of sensitivity in the World. The present administration must rise to the now biting occasion. There must be sincerity , love and loyalty to our country, if we must rise above challenges all round. 

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a game changer politically and socio-economically; the negative sudden hike on oil prices must be urgently tackled. Thank Goodness, the president is the Minister of Petroleum. Let there be an urgent stakeholder's meeting over the challenge. If there is no oil, every sector will feel its pangs. Saboteurs in the oil sector must be dealt with. Nigerians should desist from empowering "artificial scarcity".

"Righteousness exalts a nation", the Holy Bible recommends. 

In general, Nigerian government should licence available , and more modular refineries as to address bottlenecks in the oil sector. Inflation is our enemy, it must die!

Olawale Ogunbusola is a broadcast journalist, educationist, author, public affairs analyst and peace advocate, writes from Ibadan.