2023 Presidential Election: Tinubu Coasting To Victory As Opinion Polls Favour Him.

2023 Presidential Election: The Odds Still Favor Tinubu

Prof. Michael Abiodun Oni,

Department of Political Science and Public Administration,

Babcock University

Less than 48 hours before the presidential election in Nigeria, Asiwaju's status as a leading candidate in Saturday's election remains unchanged. Opinion polls and empirical studies and analyses are in his favor.

Asiwaju met almost all of the indicators used to assess the performance of political parties and candidates in African elections.

In terms of spreading as an indicator, he does. Asiwaju's party has spread throughout Nigeria's geopolitical zones; but for Oshiomole's zeal and rascality, the APC would now control Bayelsa and Edo states.Wike's tacit support for Asiwaju in this election has compensated for the zone's deficiency.He will not receive a 0 in South east.The party has one governor in the zone, and with Wike, he will score his mandatory 25 percent in almost all the states in the zone.

The APC controls Kogi, Kwara Pleateau, and Nasarawa in the north central region, while the PDP controls Benue.Nigeria.

In the northwest, APC is in control of all the states in the zone except Sokoto.

In the northeast, APC is in control of Yobe, Borno,

In the Southwest, the zone of Asiwaju, he has a solid base. Except for Osun State, other states in the zones that are for Asiwaju. Atiku may find it difficult to meet the 25 per cent in five of the six states in the zone.

What is interesting about his support from these zones,is that, he has overwhelming support from two vote baskets in Nigerian electoral politics, northwest 22 million votes and southwest 18 million votes, respectively.

Moreover, the states where votes come from in Nigeria are under APC control. These are Kano, Katsina, Lagos, Kaduna, and Rivers (courtesy of Wike). Except for Kaduna, all other states are good to go for Asiwaju.

With these vote-producing states and the accessibility of these vote-basket states currently belonging to APC, it is logical to conclude that Bola Amead Tinubu will receive the greatest number of votes cast in the election.Again, he will, by logical deduction, score the required 25 percent of votes cast as required by the constitutio. Hence, BAT will emerge as the winner of the election on Saturday without the need for a run-off.

Another indicator for measuring a candidate's performance at elections is the candidate's ability to develop human capital. These human capitals will provide comfort and convenience at elections for both the party and candidate.There are countless men and women that Asiwaju has made in Nigeria. They have played and are still playing a great role in this march for him to become Nigeria's president. He is both a builder of people and a builder of things.

In using past performance as an indicator to measure electoral outcome, there is much to show for him in Lagos. He is an architect of modern Lagos. He has a grand design (a master plan for Lagos). Asiwaju's ability to consistently raise leaders in Lagos to supervise the master plan puts him above other contestants.

As for Asiwaju's co-contestants in the race, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso.Obi is only popular in the southeast and to a lesser extent in the south south.The combined voting strength of the two zones (southeast and south south) equals that of the southwest alone.This is far less  to the northwest where Tinubu will hold sway .

In terms of building people, there is no record that Obi  has made people.It is not a secret that Ngige and Solido, the former and current governors of Anambra state are not behind him.The two had expressed their reservations about his aspiration. This means that his base is not solid.

Within a week, IPOB, the militant group in Obi's voting strength area, had gone on a canvassing rampage.The question then is, "Where will the votes for Obi come from when his people are fighting against the election on Saturday?"

Obi has not made enough friends and acquaintances across the geopolitical zones in Nigeria to enable him to impact Saturday's election. In Nigeria politics, Rome is not built in a day.

There is no doubt that his followers are saying he is a good candidate, but unfortunately, the factors that determine electoral outcome in Nigeria are not in his favor for now.

It should be noted, however, that Obi's party, the LP, may make some significant inroads in Lagos in this election due to the bloc votes expected from the lgbos who live there.But how far can this one go to win him the trophy.

The conclusion here is that Obi has no chance in Saturday's election in view of weighting him according against all the factors/ indicators determining  electoral outcome.He will only score 25 percent in fewer states, but definitely not the highest number of votes in the election.

As for Atiku Abubakar, the battle would have been more fierce between him and Bola Tinubu. In fact, it would have been his turn to rule because Atiku has what it takes to win elections but for the poor management of the party's primary election. The mismanagement of the primary has polarized the party. The polarity is a big gap for the party. It has also brightened the chances for Asiwaju. Atiku may not be able to make it on Saturday even though, he has what it takes to win but the inability of the party to keep G5 and Obi within the party, is a serious problem for his victory.

On Rabiu Kwankwaso, he is not an issue in this election. He could be in another election. His performance may be restricted to Kano.

Summary of my projection for Saturday's election

Asiwaju will have the highest number of votes cast. He will also score 25 per cent of the votes cast in two-thirds of the states in Nigeria.

The possibility of a runoff election is remote in this presidential election.

Atiku Abubakar will come second. Thus, he will have the second-highest number of votes cast across the country. He may, however, have 25 per cent of the votes cast in two-thirds of the states in Nigeria.

As for Peter Obi, he will come in third. He will score the third-highest number of votes. He will not be able to score 25 percent of the votes cast in two-thirds of the federation. He may be far from it.

Kwankwaso is going to come last.He is a vice president for tomorrow.